Tuesday, February 24, 2015

2015 Big Ten Basketball Final Two Week Preview

Two weeks left in the Big 10 basketball season, but there is still a lot left to play for.  With four games to play, Wisconsin has a three game lead in the conference standings, but it’s not a lock just yet.  With three road games left (Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio State), and a home game against Michigan State, they very easily could finish 2-2.  Although a 1-3 or 0-4 finish would be surprising, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.

After that, there is a very heated race to finish in the top 4 of the conference, and earn a double-bye in the Big 10 tournament.  Maryland, Michigan State and Purdue currently sit in the three remaining coveted spots, but Indiana and Ohio State will push to make it in, with Iowa and Illinois being dark horses. 

Michigan seems to be at a level by themselves, where they can’t make it into the top four, but will not play in the first day of the tournament either.  Day 1 has Rutgers, Penn State and Northwestern locked in, with Nebraska being the favorite the be the fourth team after they were blown out by 28 at home to Iowa, resulting in Tim Miles revoking their locker room privileges from them. Although Minnesota has the same record as Nebraska, they have a home game remaining against Penn State, the only game either of the two teams will be favored in.  

Below is a ranking of the toughest schedules remaining for the Big 10 teams, based off of the average conference winning percentage for each team's remaining opponents.
  1. Michigan State: .644 (MINN, @WIS, PUR, @IU)
  2.  Rutgers: .632 (@PUR, MD, @UM)
  3.  Minnesota: .614 (@MSU, WIS, PSU)
  4.  Nebraska - .595 (@OSU, @ILL, MD)
  5. Wisconsin - .583 (@MD, MSU, @MINN, @OSU)
  6.  Ohio State - .544 (NEB, PUR, @PSU, WIS)
  7. Northwestern - .535 (IU, @ILL, UM, @IOWA)
  8. Indiana - .524 (@NW, IOWA, MSU)
  9. Penn State - .492 (IOWA, OSU, @MINN)
  10. Purdue - .480 (RU, @OSU, @MSU, ILL)
  11. Illinois - .476 (@IOWA, NW, NEB, @PUR)
  12. Maryland - .465 (WIS, UM, @RUT, @NEB)
  13. Michigan - .449 (@MD, @NW, RUT)
  14. Iowa - .396 (ILL, @PSU, @IU, NW)
If Michigan State wins out, there is a very slim possibility of winning a share of the title, but will likely finish second or tied for second with Maryland.  Splitting the final four games is probably the most likely, which could see them tied with Purdue and Indiana for 3rd, assuming Purdue also splits and Indiana wins out.


As of 2/23/15: Courtesy of Big Ten Network

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Too Early Look at 2015 - Defense

With National Signing Day complete, let’s take a very early look at the 2015 defensive depth chart, and what the playing group is projected to look at, position-by-position.

DEFENSIVE END

Thank goodness Shilique Calhoun decided to return, or else this position would be very green.  It may come down to who is the best fit opposite Calhoun to play the strong side, potentially Evan Jones or Malik McDowell moving outside.  Demetrious Cooper will at the least rotate and see many snaps, as could Montez Sweat and Robert Bowers.  I lean towards Sweat, as he played a few snaps last year before redshirting.  Cassius Peat or maybe Raequan Williams also could play as a true freshman at the strongside spot. 

Inside the team may have one of the most talented defensive tackle positions in the country, bringing back Lawrence Thomas, Joel Heath, Malik McDowell, and Damon Knox, who all have starting experience.  Much like great SEC teams in the past, the MSU defense has the luxury of rotating these players throughout a game to keep them fresh.  Factor in redshirt freshman Enoch Smith, Craig Evans, and David Beedle, and defensive line coach Ron Burton has an embarrassment of riches. 

LINEBACKER

MSU also has great depth at linebacker, where you will likely see six to seven players on any given Saturday.  I think we’ll see a starting lineup of Ed Davis (SAM), Riley Bullough (MIKE), and Darien Harris (STAR), but Jon Reschke (MIKE), Chris Frey (SAM), and Jalyn Powell (STAR) will rotate in.  If Drake Martinez is eligible this year, also look to see him compete for time at STAR with Powell.  Riley Bullough has enough versatility where he can play outside when Reschke is in the game. Pushing for time will be Shane Jones, TJ Harrell , Byron Bullough, and true freshman Tyriq Thompson. 

CORNERBACK

There will be a lot of competition throughout the spring and fall, but I predict it will be the most intense at corner.  Darian Hicks and Demetrious Cox are the favorites to start, but close to ten players will all have a chance to crack the lineup.  Arjen Colquhoun will be a senior, but he didn’t allow any big plays in the second half of the Cotton Bowl when he saw time, so perhaps he may have finally turned the corner.  Jermaine Edmondson was also mentioned by former defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi as someone who he’d like to see take football a little more seriously last summer.  One popular name being mentioned is redshirt freshman Vayante Copeland, who could move up the depth chart, similar to Darian Hicks and Trae Waynes in the past.  Others at corner are Nick Tompkins, Justin Williams, and Jalen Watts-Jackson.  All three true freshman will also get a shot.  Josh Butler is coming off a torn ACL, but may be the most physically ready to contribute.  Tyson Smith received high praise by Coach Dantonio during the signing day press conference, being compared to Renaldo Hill, and David Dowell played in the same defensive scheme last year at his high school.

SAFETY

The safety position is more settled, as both RJ Williamson and Montae Nicholson return.  The hope is Williamson will improve going into his final year, and limit some of the mistakes of the past years where he’s been burnt deep.  Nicholson has all the physical attributes, and is likely to be a mainstay at safety for the rest of his career.  Demetrious Cox could compete for time if he doesn’t earn a spot at corner, and veteran Mark Meyers provides veteran depth.  If a rash of injuries were to happen, Jalyn Powell also has experience at safety.  He is best remembered for being drafted ahead of Williamson and Cox during the spring game draft last year.  Matt Morrissey is likely a year away from contributing, as well as true freshman Kaleel Gaines, Grayson Miller, and Khari Willis.  At least one could see time on special times though.

SPECIALISTS

Kicker Michael Geiger and long snapper Taybor Pepper return, while Mike Sadler will be replaced by former highly touted punter Jake Hartbarger, who redshirted last year. Geiger did struggle a bit last year, but is still one of the top kickers in the league. Hartbarger has a big leg at 6’4”, and was ranked in the top 5 punters by most recruiting services.

View MSU Depth Chart


Saturday, February 14, 2015

Too Early Look at 2015 - Offense

With National Signing Day complete, let’s take a look a very early look at the 2015 offensive depth chart, and what the playing group is projected to look at, position-by-position.

QUARTERBACK

There is no doubt that the job is Connor Cook’s, as he seeks to take the Spartans into the National College Football Playoff.  With another strong year, Cook could potentially be the best QB in the history of the program, and is already projected by some services to be the top QB prospect for the 2016 NFL draft class.  The real competition will be between Tyler O’Connor and Damion Terry to not only be the backup this year, but to succeed Cook for next year.  Incoming freshman Brian Lewerke is all but guaranteed to redshirt.

RUNNINGBACK

Jeremy Langford has left some huge holes to fill after rushing for 2944 yards and 40 touchdowns in the past two years.  Delton Williams is the only active player who has taken meaningful carries, which is why I predict he will be the starter going into the season opener at Western Michigan.  Madre London was a highly touted recruit who had coaches whispering in fall camp that he may not redshirt.  Although he did ultimately end up spending the season on the scout team, I predict London will shine in the spring game and form a one-two punch with Williams at the start of the year.  L.J. Scott will prove that he’s just too good to keep off the field, and look for him to push his way to more carries as the season moves on, much like how Leveon Bell earned carries when the team was playing Edwin Baker and Larry Caper in 2010.  Bell did enroll early, so Scott may take a little bit longer to earn significant carries early in the year.  This spring is very important for Gerald Holmes to show that he can compete with Williams and London.  You also have Gerald Owens, who needs to stay in shape, or he’ll likely find himself at another position.

FULLBACK

This position is Trevon Pendleton’s, no question about it.  When Pendleton is out, the team will either have an empty backfield, or have two tight ends on the field.  Dylan Chmura has had reps as a fullback/H-Back in practice, and I think Owens could see time at fullback to get him on the field. 

WIDE RECEIVER

The playing group is stacked with plenty of players who have contributed in the past, or have the potential to be impact players.  Although there are some big shoes to fill replacing Tony Lippett as well as Keith Mumphery, I predict that Aaron Burbridge, MacGarrett Kings and R.J. Shelton will establish themselves as Cook’s go-to receives.  Burbridge has plenty of talent, but needs to consistently hold onto the 50-50 balls that he has failed to catch so far in his career.  Kings is a dynamic athlete who made key players in the early part of 2013 when this team started to take off.  An off-season DUI put Kings in the dog house for part of 2014, but he will be Cook’s most consistent weapon.  R.J. Shelton will continue to be used with screens, reverses and other creative ways to get the ball in his hands in space, but he showed in the Cotton Bowl that he can be a weapon downfield as well. 

The Spartans typically have six wide receivers in their playing group, and the competition in the spring will be intense between A.J. Troup, Monty Madaris, DeAnthony Arnett, AJ Sims Jr., Tres Barksdale, Matt Macksood, and Trey Kilgore.  I think Troup and Madaris are the favorites to break-out, but walk-ons Barksdale and Macksood could be dark-horses to earn playing time.  True freshman Felton Davis and Darrell Stewart will find it difficult to play this year, unless it’s on special teams.

TIGHT END

The Spartans have three established players at tight end in Josiah Price, Jamal Lyles and Paul Lang.  The group is led by Price, a favorite target of Connor Cook’s.  Lyles has been learning the position the last two years after being moved from defensive end in the fall of 2013, and this may be the year where you see him become a mismatch for defenses due to his great athleticism.  Paul Lang is almost strictly a blocking tight end, similar in the mold to Garrett Celek.  Redshirt freshman Matt Sokol received quite a bit of praise last year, and could pass Dylan Chmura and get into the playing group this year as well.

OFFENSIVE LINE

This offensive line very well could be the best in Dantonio’s tenure.  The group is led by Jack Conklin, a possible top ten pick in next year’s NFL draft at left tackle.  A starter since his redshirt freshman year, Conklin can neutralize a team’s best pass rusher.  Starting opposite Conklin will be Kodi Kieler, who was a consistent member of the playing group. 

The Spartans may also have the best center in college football in Jack Allen, another player who has been a starter since his redshirt freshman year.  Jack Allen plays with a nasty streak, and secures the middle of the line.  It’s safe to assume Donovan Clark will be playing next to Allen at one of the guard spots, while the other could come down to a competition and rotation between Brian Allen and Brandon Clemons.  In a rare move, Brian Allen played as a true freshman last year, while Clemons was moved to guard fulltime during bowl practice, and has the ability to at the least rotate in at guard throughout the year.

Since Mark Staten likes to rotate his lineman, I also see Miguel Machado earning time at both tackle and guard spots.  A JUCO transfer who redshirted this past fall, Machado allows Staten to have flexibility in the positions each player is rotating at.  If the team is able to rotate an eighth player, it will likely be either Dennis Finley at tackle or Bennie McGowan at guard.  Finley will still just be a redshirt sophomore, while McGowan looked to possibly compete for time last year coming out of the spring, but reported in less than optimal shape for fall camp.  None of the freshman will play, and the depth looks too good right now to foresee Chase Gianacakos, Nick Padla or Devyn Salmon making an impact.

View MSU Depth Chart




Monday, February 9, 2015

2015 Signing Day Recap

This past Wednesday, twenty-two high school seniors signed to play football at Michigan State, becoming arguably one of the best classes that Mark Dantonio has signed during his tenure at Michigan State.  Below is a brief description of each player, their recruitment, and impact on the team.

DE PROTOTYPE

MSU continues to bring in, long, athletic athletes at defensive end, following the Shilique Calhoun blueprint.  Justice Alexander  joins Demetrious Cooper, Montez Sweat and Robert Bowers as lean 6’5”+ athletes who are projected as rush defensive ends after a few years of working with Coach Mannie.  According to Jim Comparoni of Spartan Magazine, Alexander showed the needed ankle flexion needed to be an explosive defensive end at the next level.  MSU’s biggest competition was Tennessee, and OSU showed interest after Alexander committed in the summer.

MOST DEDICATED

Josh Butler’s offer required a total of 49 hours spent on a bus, as he paid his way to travel from his home of Dallas to go on campus visits to Tennessee and East Lansing.  MSU’s reputation of the “No Fly Zone” made popular by Darqueze Dennard paid off and Butler committed in July after visiting.  Although he suffered a torn ACL that ended his senior season in October, the staff expects Butler to compete for playing time this fall, and may be a threat returning kicks.  Butler was ranked in the Rivals.com Top 250 (#241). 

MR. GRAY SHIRT

Cole Chewins passed on a full scholarship at Miami (Ohio) to pursue a gray shirt opportunity at MSU, paying for his first semester before going on scholarship in the spring.  Selling such an option is made easier by the fact that Jack Conklin followed a similar path, enrolling as a gray shirt before becoming a starter in his redshirt freshman year, and now being regarded as a very high pick in next year’s NFL draft by ESPN’s Mel Kiper.  Chewins won two state championships at Clarkston, and was named to the Detroit News Dream Team.  He hopes to follow in the path of another Oakland county tight end turned offensive tackle in Rochester’s Eric Fisher, the 2013 NFL #1 overall pick.

UNDERRATED

Felton Davis is a physical, tall receiver who has the speed to run away from defenders and excels at catching the ball away from his body.  With a similar build to Tony Lippett, Davis will be looked to compete for playing time early in his career, as the team graduates Aaron Burbridge, MacGarrett Kings, AJ Sims, DeAnthony Arnett and possibly AJ Troup after this year.  Although only ranked as a 3 star by Rivals.com, Davis has the potential to have a long, impactful career.

CLEVELAND TWINS

MSU was finally able to infiltrate one of the top program’s in the country in Cleveland’s St. Edwards when they received commitments from twins Andrew Dowell and David Dowell.  St. Ed’s actually visited MSU last summer, modeling their defense after the press corners that MSU employs.  Since the staff had the opportunity to watch the Dowell’s in a similar scheme, they made the decision to offer the then Kentucky commitments.  David likely projects at corner, but could play wide receiver given a need, while Andrew projects at the STAR linebacker position.

SEC LUSTER?

It’s rare that a school in the Midwest beats Alabama, Auburn and Florida State for a kid in Florida, but that’s just what MSU did when Kaleel Gaines committed in August.  Gaines played multiple positions in high school, including quarterback, but will likely play safety in college.  He has the potential to compete early for playing time as well, as the secondary will have open competition in the fall for starting CBs.

LONE STAR LINEMAN

Although LSU and TCU offered Houston offensive lineman Tyler Higby, Higby decided to commit to MSU, who has family located in the Midland, Michigan area.  Higby will likely play guard, and Dantonio considers Higby “one of the most athletic offensive lineman in the state of Texas.”  Higby will redshirt, but could compete for a spot in the two-deeps in 2016.

PATIENCE

Mufi Hunt made his college decision to attend MSU by stating that he will “fight alongside my brothers of Sparta.”  From Utah, Hunt will be embarking on a two-year Mormon mission after graduation, so he will not enroll until 2017.  Hunt seems to be very mature mentally, but will need a few years to add weight and to mature physically.  Given patience, Hunt could develop into a force off the edge given the fact that he will 23 – 24 years old as an upper-classmen.  This may also open up a pipeline to more Samoan players to MSU, following in the lines of Tupe Peko, Domato Peko, and Fou Fonoti. 

ROSE BOWL SUCCESS

Without the success in last year’s Rose Bowl and the attention it brought to MSU out west, it’s unlikely that Brian Lewerke would be a member of this class.  Hailing from Phoenix, it was a combination of the on-field success and the pro style offense that made MSU an attractive option to Lewerke.  Also take into account that MSU did not take a QB in last year’s class, and Lewerke has a very good chance at becoming the starting QB for at least his last two years at MSU. 

BIG COUNTRY

Noah Listermann is physically the biggest recruit since David Barrent in 2009.  Listermann attended the same school as George Brown, another OT who may have been ranked higher, but Listermann arguably out-performed Brown during the year.  Listermann did have an OSU offer for a short period, where he was basically told if he committed at the time and didn’t visit East Lansing, he could be a member of their class.  Listermann projects at right tackle, and realistically will compete for a starting spot in 2017.

FASTEST PLAYER

Drake Martinez is the younger brother of former Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez, but he may be just as fast.  Martinez originally committed to Nebraska over MSU in 2013, but left school after a serious illness resulted in Martinez losing 35 pounds.  Although Martinez may lose a year of eligibility due to a Big 10 rule that states a transfer within the conference has to sit out a year, that speaks volumes that Martinez was willing to sacrifice a year of playing time to come to MSU.  Martinez projects at multiple positions, but likely will get first crack at the STAR LB position.

DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH

Grayson Miller is the son of former Spartan John Miller, and his commitment caught many Spartan fans off guard.  However Miller ran two 4.4 40s at the MSU camp, and also jumped over 10’ in the broad jump, showing just how explosive he is.  Unfortunately Miller missed his entire senior season due to an ankle injury, but the staff projects Miller as a safety prospect.  It is possible that he could grow into a linebacker as well. 

NFL BLOODLINES

Cassius Peat is the younger brother of NFL projected first-round pick Andrus Peat, and is the son of former NFL offensive lineman Todd Peat.  Dantonio did mention that Peat is a candidate to play early, and he could fill a defensive end role similar to what Marcus Rush did for the past four years.  Some have even said that they wouldn’t be surprised if Peat grew to be a defensive tackle, similar to Joel Heath, however in terms of depth on the defensive line, I think it’s best that he stick to the end position.  Peat was a UCLA commit for a time, but Dantonio stated in his press conference that he was aware Peat still wanted to hear from and consider Michigan State.     

MOST LIKELY TO PLAY EARLY

The consensus top player in this class, L.J. Scott has drawn plenty of comparisons to Leveon Bell for his physical build, running style, and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Look for Scott to compete for first-team reps from the minute he steps foot on campus.  Competition at RB will be between Delton Williams, Gerald Holmes, Madre London, and Gerald Owens, but look for Williams, London and Scott to form a rotation once the season begins.  Scott was a huge recruiting victory when he committed in July, not only holding offers from Alabama and Ohio State, but he is from Northeast Ohio, a traditional strong-hold for the Buckeyes.  Scott comes from Hubbard, the same school as Kurtis Drummond, which helped in the recruiting process.  Scott is ranked the #57 player in the country by Rivals.com. 

ST. MARYS PIPELINE

Tyson Smith joins former St. Mary’s teammates Jalen Watts-Jackson (JWJ), Nathan Conrad, Sean Harrington and Jeremy Schram on the Spartan roster.  Smith was a player the staff identified early in the process as they recruited JWJ, and it paid off when Smith became the first commit for the class.  Dantonio compared Smith to former Spartan DB and NFL player Renaldo Hill.  Smith also has the potential to compete for playing time early at corner. 

TOP INSTATE PLAYER

Although Mike Weber and Brian Cole had been ranked as the state’s top player, Kyonta Stallworth should be mentioned in the same breath as one of, if not the top player in the country.  Stallworth had offers from Alabama, Florida, MSU and UCLA before his junior year, and is athletic enough to possibly play tackle if needed, similar to Donovan Clark.  Dantonio mentioned that Stallworth could play early, although I think it is likely Stallworth will redshirt and then compete for a spot at guard in 2016.  Remember Brian Allen wasn’t needed to play significantly until Connor Kruse’s’ injury at the start of the year. 

KIWI REINCARNATE

Mark Dantonio made several comparisons during his press conference, but the one that stuck out to me the most was him comparing Darrell Stewart to Keshawn Martin.  Stewart was another versatile player in high school, playing multiple positions including QB.  The offensive staff has already mentioned using Stewart on reverses and using his passing ability for trick plays.  Stewart attended the same high school as WR coach Terry Samuel, and is versatile enough to play defensive back if needed.  Also look for Stewart to compete for playing time in 2016.

BIGGEST COUP

Tyriq Thompson is the son of former Michigan player Clarence Thompson, making Tyriq’s commitment the biggest coup.  The staff identified Thompson as a key target early, and Thompson was one of the top defensive performers at the Semper Fidelis All-American game.  Thompson enrolled for the spring semester, and will participate in spring practice.  Mike Tressel mentioned that Thompson has the capability to play all three linebacker positions, and he even could get a look at fullback to get Thompson on the field early. 

NEXT FB

Kenny Willekes accepted a preferred walk-on spot, but has the chance to earn a scholarship if he is able to earn the starting fullback position after the graduation of Trevon Pendleton.  Willekes’s biggest competition could be Gerald Owens if he sticks in the offensive backfield and the staff feels Owens has outgrown the RB position.  Willekes could also get a look at LB. 

MALK 2.0

Raequan Williams has drawn comparisons to Malik McDowell due to his size and athleticism.  Williams could initially see playing time at defensive end, but will likely spend the majority of his career inside at defensive tackle.  Williams is from the Chicago area, keeping the pipeline to Chicago alive after MSU received four commitments from the area in 2014.  Williams also plays basketball, and is rated the #153 player in the country by Rivals.com. 

FUTURE CAPTAIN

Although Khari Willis’s ran for 2,800 yards and 30 touchdowns in his senior season as a running back, Dantonio announced that Willis would play safety, comparing him to Isaiah Lewis.  They like Willis as an explosive, physical athlete who shows strong leadership skills.  Willis was also a candidate to play Division 1 basketball, but will focus on football in college.  In fact Co-Defensive Coordinator Harlon Barnett injured his Achilles while playing against Willis this summer.  There still remains a possibility that Willis sees time at running back at some point in his career, as we know how much the staff likes to move players around.